North Carolina, which exported a record $43.8 billion in goods in 2025 with Canada as its largest market, faces an uncertain future as the first formal review of the USMCA begins July 1. This significant trade agreement, governing commerce across North America, will undergo scrutiny by officials from the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
The USMCA underpins billions in trade and supports hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs, but the first formal review's potential impact on these vital economic ties remains largely unknown. The review process, which includes a USMCA review countdown to a 2026 deadline for initial assessments, introduces a period of heightened market sensitivity.
Companies deeply integrated into North American supply chains should prepare for potential shifts in trade policy and market access as the review unfolds. This inaugural review marks a critical juncture for the agreement, potentially reshaping the economic landscape for states and industries deeply integrated into North American trade.
The Vast Economic Stakes for U.S. States
North Carolina's economy relies heavily on its North American partners. The state imported roughly $17 billion in goods from Mexico and over $8 billion from Canada in 2024, according to The North State Journal. This two-way trade supports as many as 142,000 jobs across North Carolina.
The sheer scale of North Carolina's two-way trade with Canada and Mexico, totaling over $60 billion annually, means the USMCA review is not just an export issue but a potential inflationary trigger for goods imported into the state. North Carolina's economy, with Canada as its largest export market and 142,000 jobs tied to North American trade, is uniquely vulnerable to any unfavorable outcomes from the USMCA review, making it a bellwether for broader state-level economic impacts.
Critical Impact on Key U.S. Industries
The American textile sector exhibits an extreme reliance on its North American trade partners. This industry ships $11.6 billion, or 53 percent, of its total global textile exports to Mexico and Canada, according to WWD. Overwhelming dependence highlights a significant supply chain risk.
